Tax Credit Ends with Bang – What’s Next?

Elizabeth Cooper-Golden - Huntsville Realtor

by Elizabeth Cooper-Golden

in Huntsville Housing Market

Huntsville Home Sales Break-Out

Single Family Home Sales within the Huntsville Metro Area surge to 394 transactions for the month of June 2010. This represents a +14% increase over the previous month’s performance and a very significant +25% increase over June of 2009 and it occurred across price ranges indiscriminately. What a month!

What is even more significant however, is that the Home Sale Trend over the last 3 months has broken-out above the year-over-year downward trend we have been experiencing for almost 3 years. Thus this upward move in home sales could mark a real change in our local market’s direction or it could be a Tax-Credit aberration, only time will tell. The black dash trend-line in the following chart illustrates this perfectly:


Home Buyers Tax Credit of 2010 Effect?

Just how much of recent market success is related to the now ‘debunked’ home buyers tax credit? Our answer would be: significant!

The tax credit had 2 primary effects: it brought qualifying first time home buyers who were hesitant into the market and it also accelerated home buyers whose normal purchase plans would have likely occurred in July – September. While we can’t measure the percentage of the market that fell into this category we can measure the overall market performance of the last 4 months where the tax-credit had its greatest influence.

February 2010 marked a 4 year low for home sales in the Huntsville Metro Area with only 156 transactions occurring during the month. When we compare this with June’s 394 closings we see a market that has increased a whopping  +153%. Certainly this growth rate is unsustainable and very likely June of 2010 will be the market high for the year.

Where Do We Go From Here?

2010 may very well end-up being the year of lower lows and higher highs, because the Tax-Credit programs of the last 2 years have introduced an element of volatility into the normal seasonal cycle of the Real Estate Market.

Thus the next few months will be very interesting to say the least. Moreover we will be able to  measure the effect of the Tax-Credit in October – November, when we are able to compare 2010 results with the same months of 2009 when the 1st Tax-Credit expired.   So there are some exciting times ahead and as always, the best way to follow our market reports is to subscribe to our RSS Feed and stay tuned, you’ll know as soon we do!

– Elizabeth

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The data relating to Huntsville AL Real Estate on this Web site derive in part from the Valley MLS IDX datashare program. © 2016 Valley MLS, Inc. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

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