March 2009
Given the precipitant shift this past month in one of our local market’s strongest attributes (Home Prices), we thought some further investigation into the details of this dynamic was worthy of consideration. We are sure many local home owners as well as buyers in the market that frequent these pages are wondering: What is happening? Is my own home’s value effected? What price ranges and locations have been effected the most? Are Huntsville sellers finally capitulating and now conceding their listing price to current market value?
The first comparison we will look at is a metro wide price range comparison for March 2008 and 2009. What this reveals is, that one of the factors leading to the recent trend in lower average Huntsville Home Prices is a huge shift in the mix of homes that are being sold.
For example in this year-over-year comparison, the number of homes selling for $100k or less increased by ~18% while at the same time the number of home sales $400k and over decreased a whopping ~ 69% with very-very few homes being sold in this price range. This dynamic was also accompanied by a price shift. With lower priced homes actually experiencing a price appreciation of 6%, mid-range home prices remaining relatively flat, and upper end homes $400k and more experiencing a decrease in sales price of ~15% as illustrated in the following chart.
Huntsville Home Sales / Price Range Comparison March 2008-2009
| 2008 Sales | 2009 Sales | %Change | 2008 Price | 2009 Price | %Change | |
| 0-100k | 51 | 60 | 17.6% | $48 | $51 | 6.3% |
| 100k-200k | 115 | 90 | -21.7% | $87 | $85 | -2.3% |
| 200k-300k | 86 | 64 | -25.6% | $99 | $98 | -1.0% |
| 300k-400k | 36 | 21 | -41.7% | $110 | $107 | -2.7% |
| 400k – up | 26 | 8 | -69.2% | $149 | $126 | -15.4% |
| Total / Avg | 314 | 243 | -22.6% | $91.7 | $83.3 | -9.2% |
While the number of unit sales is lower this year than last, this result is consistent with the unit sales decline we have been experiencing for well over a year and in fact the 22% decline is a moderate one when compared to Nov-Dec 40% decline. Thus the story here is the consistent lowering trend of average home prices we have been experiencing since October 2008 when Huntsville homes prices first moved below its moving average and has remained there and extended its downward reach this month as illustrated in a previous post.
The next comparison of interest is a look at this same year-over-year comparison, expect focus the numbers on the various MLS locations within the Huntsville metro area. The strongest MLS area once again is Northeast Huntsville, however this is a small unique MLS area which includes a large segment of Huntsville’s Historic District and often goes again the trend. The largest sales declines occurred in Madison City Limits and Outside Madison City Limits with the largest average price declines occurring in Northwest Huntsville and Madison City Limits, which has quite a few homes over $400k on the market. One thing is clear however, all areas of the metro area are experiencing effects of the sales and pricing mix dynamic to some extent.
Huntsville Home Sales / Location Comparison March 2008-2009
|
2008 Sales
|
2009 Sales
|
%Change
|
2008 Price
|
2009 Price
|
%Change
|
|
|
Hsv Nw
|
46
|
40
|
-13.0%
|
$63
|
$51
|
-19.0%
|
|
Hsv Sw
|
49
|
36
|
-26.5%
|
$82
|
$78
|
-4.8%
|
|
Hsv East
|
32
|
25
|
-21.9%
|
$109
|
$103
|
-5.5%
|
|
Hsv Ne
|
17
|
17
|
0.0%
|
$118
|
$130
|
10.1%
|
|
Hsv Se
|
43
|
42
|
-2.3%
|
$103
|
$95
|
-7.7%
|
|
Mad City
|
63
|
39
|
-38.0%
|
$103
|
$93
|
-9.7%
|
|
Mad Out City
|
61
|
40
|
-34.4%
|
$92
|
$87
|
-5.4%
|
Please view our related post Huntsville Home Prices Weaken for additional information and please feel free comment and/or email if you have any further questions as more detail is certainly available and will likely differ by neighborhood and/or subdivision.
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